Grade 4 - Statistics and Probability (Chance and Uncertainty)

The sub-organizer contains the following sections:
Prescribed Learning Outcomes
Suggested Instructional Strategies
Suggested Assessment Strategies
Recommended Learning Resources

PRESCRIBED LEARNING OUTCOMES

It is expected that students will conduct simple probability experiments to explain outcomes.

It is expected that students will:

identify an outcome using the terms possible, impossible, certain, or uncertain
compare outcomes using the terms equally likely, more likely, or less likely
design and conduct experiments to answer their own questions

To view the prescribed learning outcomes for Statistics and Probabilities (Chance and Uncertainty) in other grades click on an icon below.

SUGGESTED INSTRUCTIONAL STRATEGIES

Students interpret events in the world as either likely or unlikely to happen. They examine data to make sense of why some things happen instead of others and also to make predictions based on the frequency of events. At this level the vocabulary for describing the probability of the event becomes more refined.

Have students place three red and three green Unifix cubes in a bag. Ask:
- Is it possible that I'll pull out a blue?
- Is it possible that I'll pull out a red?
- What can you be certain of?
Have students pull one cube out of the bag and chart or note its colour. Have them repeat this a number of times. Now ask:
- What is likely to come out next?
- If I change the combination of the cubes to five red and one green, will the outcome be different?
- What if we increased the number of cubes? Discuss how the outcomes have changed. Ask:
- What other variables might affect the outcome?

SUGGESTED ASSESSMENT STRATEGIES

As students conduct simple probability experiments to explain outcomes, they can demonstrate their ability to make sense of events. In assessing student progress, consider their ability to reason logically about why specific outcomes can or cannot occur, and their ability to communicate their reasoning.

Observe

Can students identify an outcome as possible, impossible, certain, or uncertain?
Can students compare outcomes as equally likely, more likely, or less likely?

Collect

Have students record their experiences (e.g., how they designed and conducted experiments) in their math journal and explain their findings. Have them present their findings to small groups or the class.