Grades 2 to 3 - Statistics and Probability (Chance and Uncertainty)

The sub-organizer contains the following sections:
Prescribed Learning Outcomes
Suggested Instructional Strategies
Suggested Assessment Strategies
Recommended Learning Resources

PRESCRIBED LEARNING OUTCOMES

It is expected that students will use simple experiments designed by others to illustrate and explain probability and chance.

It is expected that students will:

describe the likeliness of an outcome using terms such as likely, unlikely, fair chance, probable, and expected
conduct a probability experiment, choose an appropriate recording method, and draw conclusions and make predictions from the results

To view the prescribed learning outcomes for Statistics and Probabilities (Chance and Uncertainty) in other grades click on an icon below.

SUGGESTED INSTRUCTIONAL STRATEGIES

Uncertainty is part of our daily lives. Many of our decisions are based on our informal predictions concerning the likeliness of certain events occurring. As students become more aware of the likelihood of certain events happening, they can begin to collect and record data that help them to discover patterns around the frequency of events. This will allow them to begin to make predictions.

Have students use the terms likely, unlikely, fair chance, probable, and expected in a school context. For example: It is ____________ that there will be a hot dog sale next month.
Choose possible-chance questions that are of interest to this age group. Give students cards with words on them such as likely and unlikely . Have them hold up the card with the most appropriate answer as you ask questions. For example: How likely is it that someone in our room:
- has on a Band-Aid?
- plays an instrument?
- has travelled to another country?
- came to school on an airplane?
- has a soccer game next week?
Provide opportunities to explore chance.
Play Counters Away. Students have 11 counters that they can place on a number line of 2 to 12. For example, they may place three counters on number 5, four counters on number 8, and one each on 9, 10, 11, and 12. Two dice are rolled. The counters on the number of the sum of the dice are removed. The object is to be the first to have all of his/her counters removed.

SUGGESTED ASSESSMENT STRATEGIES

By exploring probability and chance through games and experiments, students are encouraged to make predictions about events. They can adjust and adapt experiments to answer their own questions about why certain events happen. As they play these games and do these experiments, they can write or talk about their predictions, why they made such predictions, and what actually occurred. From this, they begin to view their world as a combination of events that they can understand, and sometimes influence, and others that are chance occurrences.

Observe and Question

Pose questions such as those listed under "Suggested Instructional Strategies" in discussions and informal interviews. Watch for evidence of:
- students' interest in making predictions
- their ability to tailor their responses to specific questions rather than, for example, making the same predictions again and again
- whether or not they are exploring systematic ways of responding
- the frequency of unreasonable answers
- their use of vocabulary (e.g., probably, expect, likely )
- their willingness to speculate about ways to verify their predictions
When they are playing Counters Away, observe:
- to what extent students appear to be calculating possible outcomes based on their understanding of the probability of dice rolls
- to what degree they can describe their strategy for winning the game