• recognize that decisions based on probability may be a combination of theoretical calculations, experimental results, and subjective judgments
  

Interview some people to find out how they pick lottery numbers and why they choose particular numbers.

Jay checked data on how often each number has been drawn in a particular lottery. He chose six numbers that had been drawn the least often. Do they have a greater probability of being drawn the next time? Explain.

The weather forecast indicates that the probability of precipitation for tomorrow is 60%. Should Sasha go golfing? Explain your answer.

• demonstrate an understanding of the role of probability and statistics in society

Find examples from newspapers, radio, TV, or other sources that use probability (e.g., marketing of products and services, weather forecasting, opinion polls). Are the data valid? Are they presented in an honest or in a misleading way? What assumptions are made?

• solve problems involving the probability of independent events

If you toss three pennies, what is the probability that they will all land heads? What other events are possible? Are all the events equally likely? Explain. What is the probability of getting two heads and one tail? Justify your answer by using pennies to illustrate all possible outcomes.

Amanda chose three single digits for her combination lock. What is the probability that someone could make a lucky guess and open her lock? Explain. How could you set up a simulation experiment using the computer to solve this problem?

There are two red, two green, and two blue candies in a bag. What is the probability of drawing a red one? How many will you have to draw before you are sure of drawing a red one?